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02-11-2010, 01:12 PM #1
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White- 1999 Transam WS6
Quick question (for research purposes)
Which one of the following two is more likely to occur?
A) A massive flood in the United States resulting in the death of thousands.
Or,
B) An earthquake in California causing massive floods resulting in the death of thousands.
This is for pure research purposes..
Please respond before looking at any comments so they don't influence your decision!
You don't need any more information than is giving in this post!
Edit: Also give a reason as to why you choose your answer.Last edited by Aetos; 02-11-2010 at 01:25 PM.
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02-11-2010, 01:15 PM #2
Is this opinion based or do I need to go do research?
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02-11-2010, 01:16 PM #3
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02-11-2010, 01:22 PM #4
Thousands? Our levees here are shit but I can't see it being a katrina or anything. Most people here have a boat I'd say A
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02-11-2010, 01:43 PM #5
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Grey- 2003 R/T
Earthquake, floods rarely kill thousands of people in the US.
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02-11-2010, 01:56 PM #6
A is more likely. B has the same thing as A but requires an additional to happen to cause it.
As far as "logic" is concerned with that, if either one is going to occur, A is definitely going to occur whether it's the result of B.
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02-11-2010, 01:56 PM #7
oh, and you fail for having no poll on this test.
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02-11-2010, 02:05 PM #8
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02-11-2010, 02:45 PM #9
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2002 Z28 A4 NBM- Sadly now demodded :(
C) Dinosaur killer wipes us all out...
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02-11-2010, 02:48 PM #10
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Gray/ White- 09Ram 1500 83 Thunderturd
Hopefully California floats off to sea and sinks with Pelosi on it
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02-11-2010, 02:54 PM #11
B for sure.. and i could tell you why!
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02-11-2010, 03:03 PM #12
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02-11-2010, 03:12 PM #13
CA levy and dam systems are in dire need of TLC. A major quake near these sensetive areas could cause levys and dams to fail resulting in mass flooding and chaos that would trickle down to major metro areas.. ie LA, and San Fran.. the gov't aint doing shit to maintain water sources.
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02-11-2010, 03:20 PM #14
I'd have to say b because it has a better chance of more people dying.
Posted via Mobile Device
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02-11-2010, 03:20 PM #15
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02-11-2010, 04:13 PM #16
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White- 1999 Transam WS6
I used the following explanation on another forum, I think it catches it pretty well:
Yup, you are right. At the core, this problem is a logical one.
I believe we can catch the problem with the following:
A basically says " X occurs in Y"
B basically says " X(caused by W) occurs in Z(located IN Y)"
Where is X most likely to occur?
Since B is in A, then A must have a higher chance of occurring;
(p)A= p(A) + p(B)
(p = probability)
X = Flood
Y = USA
Z = California
W = Earthquake
Don't feel bad guys, most people get this question wrong!
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02-11-2010, 04:44 PM #17
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02-11-2010, 04:54 PM #18
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02-11-2010, 04:58 PM #19
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02-11-2010, 04:59 PM #20
- Join Date
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White- 1999 Transam WS6
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