Quick question (for research purposes)

**Aetos** · 02-11-2010, 01:12 PM

Which one of the following two is more likely to occur?

A) A massive flood in the United States resulting in the death of thousands.

Or,

B) An earthquake in California causing massive floods resulting in the death of thousands.

This is for pure research purposes..

Please respond before looking at any comments so they don't influence your decision!

You don't need any more information than is giving in this post!

Edit: Also give a reason as to why you choose your answer.

**86 IROC-Z** · 02-11-2010, 01:15 PM

Is this opinion based or do I need to go do research?

**Aetos** · 02-11-2010, 01:16 PM

Originally Posted by 86 IROC-Z

Is this opinion based or do I need to go do research?

You don't need any more information than is giving in the original post, It's more of a logical question than anything else.

**SeVeReDiStOrTiOn** · 02-11-2010, 01:22 PM

Thousands? Our levees here are shit but I can't see it being a katrina or anything. Most people here have a boat

I'd say A

**irbaboon** · 02-11-2010, 01:43 PM

Earthquake, floods rarely kill thousands of people in the US.

**DrMilhouse** · 02-11-2010, 01:56 PM

A is more likely. B has the same thing as A but requires an additional to happen to cause it.

As far as "logic" is concerned with that, if either one is going to occur, A is definitely going to occur whether it's the result of B.

**DrMilhouse** · 02-11-2010, 01:56 PM

oh, and you fail for having no poll on this test.

**Aetos** · 02-11-2010, 02:05 PM

Originally Posted by DrMilhouse

oh, and you fail for having no poll on this test.

Polls hardly ever work in the AAG. And you are entirely correct. This is a logical problem and A encompasses B. Kudos to you!

Originally Posted by irbaboon

Earthquake, floods rarely kill thousands of people in the US.

Wrong, see above.

Originally Posted by SeVeReDiStOrTiOn

Thousands? Our levees here are shit but I can't see it being a katrina or anything. Most people here have a boat

I'd say A

Right, but for the wrong reason!

**67CamaroRSSS** · 02-11-2010, 02:45 PM

C) Dinosaur killer wipes us all out...

**GTP231** · 02-11-2010, 02:48 PM

Hopefully California floats off to sea and sinks with Pelosi on it

**whoa guy** · 02-11-2010, 02:54 PM

B for sure.. and i could tell you why!

**Aetos** · 02-11-2010, 03:03 PM

Originally Posted by whoa guy

B for sure.. and i could tell you why!

You seem so certain, care to "enlighten" us?

**whoa guy** · 02-11-2010, 03:12 PM

Originally Posted by Aetos

You seem so certain, care to "enlighten" us?

CA levy and dam systems are in dire need of TLC. A major quake near these sensetive areas could cause levys and dams to fail resulting in mass flooding and chaos that would trickle down to major metro areas.. ie LA, and San Fran.. the gov't aint doing shit to maintain water sources.

**chiller2484** · 02-11-2010, 03:20 PM

I'd have to say b because it has a better chance of more people dying.
Posted via Mobile Device

**Aetos** · 02-11-2010, 03:20 PM

Originally Posted by whoa guy

CA levy and dam systems are in dire need of TLC. A major quake near these sensetive areas could cause levys and dams to fail resulting in mass flooding and chaos that would trickle down to major metro areas.. ie LA, and San Fran.. the gov't aint doing shit to maintain water sources.

I'll let you in on one SIGNIFICANT clue that you may have overlooked. California is located within the United States.

Originally Posted by chiller2484

I'd have to say b because it has a better chance of more people dying.
Posted via Mobile Device

I never once said, "where will more people die"

**Aetos** · 02-11-2010, 04:13 PM

I used the following explanation on another forum, I think it catches it pretty well:

Yup, you are right. At the core, this problem is a logical one.

I believe we can catch the problem with the following:

A basically says " X occurs in Y"
B basically says " X(caused by W) occurs in Z(located IN Y)"

Where is X most likely to occur?

Since B is in A, then A must have a higher chance of occurring;
(p)A= p(A) + p(B)

(p = probability)

X = Flood
Y = USA
Z = California
W = Earthquake

Don't feel bad guys, most people get this question wrong!

**86 IROC-Z** · 02-11-2010, 04:44 PM

Originally Posted by Aetos

You don't need any more information than is giving in the original post, It's more of a logical question than anything else.

The deaths from the earthquake, are all of them attributed solely to the flood caused by the earthquake, or do they include other deaths caused by the earthquake such as being killed from a building collapsing?

**Aetos** · 02-11-2010, 04:54 PM

Originally Posted by 86 IROC-Z

The deaths from the earthquake, are all of them attributed solely to the flood caused by the earthquake, or do they include other deaths caused by the earthquake such as being killed from a building collapsing?